Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.9#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#163
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.4% 21.0% 9.8%
#1 Seed 46.1% 55.5% 32.8%
Top 2 Seed 68.5% 77.5% 55.8%
Top 4 Seed 86.1% 91.8% 78.0%
Top 6 Seed 93.3% 96.5% 88.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 99.4% 96.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.1% 98.9% 94.9%
Average Seed 2.3 2.0 2.9
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.0% 97.1%
Conference Champion 55.5% 61.3% 47.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round98.1% 99.4% 96.4%
Second Round91.9% 95.1% 87.3%
Sweet Sixteen72.2% 77.2% 65.1%
Elite Eight52.0% 57.6% 44.0%
Final Four35.2% 40.5% 27.7%
Championship Game22.6% 26.7% 16.7%
National Champion14.1% 16.9% 10.2%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 5
Quad 27 - 118 - 5
Quad 34 - 022 - 6
Quad 44 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 2   Kentucky W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 10, 2019 339   Binghamton W 89-52 100.0%   
  Nov 14, 2019 17   @ Seton Hall W 77-72 68%    
  Nov 18, 2019 194   Charleston Southern W 88-61 99%    
  Nov 25, 2019 85   Virginia Tech W 76-60 92%    
  Dec 03, 2019 3   Duke W 82-77 68%    
  Dec 08, 2019 66   Rutgers W 81-64 93%    
  Dec 14, 2019 201   Oakland W 88-64 98%    
  Dec 18, 2019 99   @ Northwestern W 76-61 90%    
  Dec 21, 2019 222   Eastern Michigan W 80-52 99%    
  Dec 29, 2019 231   Western Michigan W 89-60 99%    
  Jan 02, 2020 42   Illinois W 85-71 89%    
  Jan 05, 2020 21   Michigan W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 09, 2020 70   Minnesota W 82-65 93%    
  Jan 12, 2020 12   @ Purdue W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 17, 2020 33   Wisconsin W 73-60 87%    
  Jan 23, 2020 47   @ Indiana W 76-67 77%    
  Jan 26, 2020 70   @ Minnesota W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 29, 2020 99   Northwestern W 79-58 96%    
  Feb 01, 2020 33   @ Wisconsin W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 04, 2020 43   Penn St. W 80-66 88%    
  Feb 08, 2020 21   @ Michigan W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 11, 2020 42   @ Illinois W 82-74 74%    
  Feb 15, 2020 9   Maryland W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 20, 2020 88   @ Nebraska W 79-66 86%    
  Feb 25, 2020 39   Iowa W 87-73 88%    
  Feb 29, 2020 9   @ Maryland W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 03, 2020 43   @ Penn St. W 77-69 75%    
  Mar 08, 2020 14   Ohio St. W 75-65 80%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.6 12.0 14.5 12.7 6.7 55.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.3 5.9 3.9 1.3 0.1 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.8 8.3 11.1 13.6 16.2 15.8 12.8 6.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 6.7    6.7
19-1 99.4% 12.7    12.1 0.6
18-2 92.0% 14.5    12.3 2.1 0.1
17-3 74.3% 12.0    8.2 3.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 48.4% 6.6    3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
15-5 22.3% 2.5    0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.5% 55.5 43.4 10.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 6.7% 100.0% 70.8% 29.2% 1.1 6.2 0.5 100.0%
19-1 12.8% 100.0% 63.8% 36.2% 1.1 11.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 15.8% 100.0% 54.0% 46.0% 1.3 12.0 3.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 16.2% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 1.5 9.4 5.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.6% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 2.0 4.9 5.4 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.1% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 2.6 1.9 3.8 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.3% 99.9% 21.3% 78.6% 3.5 0.4 1.5 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 5.8% 99.8% 16.7% 83.1% 4.5 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 4.0% 98.4% 10.8% 87.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.2%
11-9 2.6% 94.3% 7.6% 86.7% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.8%
10-10 1.5% 79.7% 2.0% 77.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 79.2%
9-11 1.0% 48.2% 1.9% 46.2% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 47.2%
8-12 0.4% 21.4% 1.7% 19.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 20.1%
7-13 0.2% 9.3% 3.6% 5.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.9%
6-14 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9%
5-15 0.1% 9.8% 0.7% 9.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.2%
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 40.3% 58.0% 2.3 46.1 22.4 11.4 6.2 4.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 97.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 97.3 2.7